Italian regional polls will show if Silvio Berlusconi's popularity is waning

• THE prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, will be able to assess the damage that a string of scandals has meted out to his government when Italians go to the polls for two days of voting in regional elections starting on Sunday March 28th. Elections are set to take place in 13 of Italy’s 20 regions. Eleven regions are held by the centre-left opposition. Mr Berlusconi, hoping to capitalise on a wave of sympathy after an attack by a mentally unstable man in December, had hoped his People of Freedom (PdL) movement might oust up to five centrist and left-wing governors. But its campaign is in chaos—and the government’s ratings are plunging.

• FOUR employees of Rio Tinto, a huge Anglo-Australian mining company, go on trial in China on Monday March 22nd on charges of bribery and industrial espionage in connection with negotiations over the price of iron ore. The accused, three Chinese and one Australian, were arrested last year shortly after Rio had spurned a big investment from Chinalco, a Chinese state-backed metals firm, infuriating the Chinese authorities. That led to speculation that the two events were linked while also dealing a blow to relations between China and Australia. But now relations seem to be improving, at least between Rio and Chinalco. The two companies are have announced a big iron-ore joint venture in Africa. ...

A big African deal signals a partial thaw in Rio Tinto's relations with China

IN ONE respect Rio Tinto’s relationship with China is clear. That country accounted for a quarter of the mining giant’s revenues in 2009, mainly because of China’s voracious appetite for iron ore. In other respects their relationship is harder to fathom. China was said to be furious last year when Rio first accepted and then spurned its offer to make a $19.5 billion investment in the Anglo-Australian firm. Four Rio employees were subsequently arrested in China for alleged bribery and commercial spying, and this week a date was set for their trial. But on March 19th, just three days before the courts were to begin hearing the cases, Rio announced it had signed a huge joint venture in Africa with none other than Chinalco, the Chinese state-backed metals firm which it had wooed and then jilted last year.

If the deal, to develop a huge iron-ore mine at Simandou in Guinea, suggests a warming in relations between Rio and the Chinese authorities, the signals from the continuing judicial proceedings against Rio’s four employees imply quite the opposite. The arrests of the four men—three are Chinese and one, Stern Hu, is an Australian of Chinese descent—were related to the annual negotiations that set the price China’s steelmakers must pay for iron ore from the world’s three big suppliers: Rio, BHP Billiton and Vale. It was widely assumed outside China that the arrests were motivated by the Chinese authorities’ pique at the way Rio had treated Chinalco. ...

Temperatures are rising over land and sea

Some critics argue that the global record of land surface temperature over the 20th century could be to some extent corrupted by heat from towns and other factors. There is a clear warming, though, if a lesser one, in two other records made independently; that of the temperature of the oceans' surface waters and of the night time air temperature over the oceans. While the larger warming over land could in part reflect some error of procedure, though that is not proven, the trends all have the same shape.

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The stage is set for crucial vote on America’s health-care reform bill

IT’S official, or as official as these things get. The health-care package destined for a vote in America’s House of Representatives on Sunday will cost $940 billion over the next ten years. Though the Congressional Budget Office score (as the estimate is known), along with the bill's final details, seems to clear the air on what the House will vote on, the package and the process remain complicated. The House is facing a two-part vote to pass the Senate bill and also tweaks through a process called “reconciliation”. The former may be done through a rule that Republicans are saying is unconstitutional (though they have used it themselves). Procedural trickery or not, everyone in the House will cast a vote on the Senate bill plus reconciliation. Whether it passes or not is far more important than quibbles about the House rules.

The CBO also reckon that the health-care package, through savings and new revenue, will cut the total deficit over those years by $138 billion against a baseline scenario. After that, the savings get even bigger, totalling (a much more speculative) $1.2 trillion by 2029, according to some Democrats. But the sums are questionable. The CBO process has been so thoroughly gamed that the true figures could be quite different. The Republicans claim that it will cost far more and totally reject the idea that it will cut the deficit by such a sum over the second decade. ...

A ban on the trade in bluefin tuna is rejected

IT WAS a moment of some drama when delegates assembled in Doha came to vote on a ban in the trade in bluefin tuna on March 18th. The previous evening many representatives of the 175 member nations of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) had been at a reception at the Japanese embassy. Prominent on the menu was bluefin tuna sushi. On the agenda the next day at the CITES meeting was a proposal to list the bluefin tuna as sufficiently endangered that it would qualify for a complete ban in the trade of the species (The Economist supports such a ban).

The complex proposal called for further discussion of the bluefin tuna’s plight. Europe, the United States, Monaco and Norway were hoping to move to an adjournment, which would have allowed a proper investigation of the issues over the weekend. Kevern Cochrane, the representative from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), agreed. He also acknowledged that the official FAO panel had decided that the species met the scientific criteria for listing as a sufficiently endangered species qualifying for a trade ban--the bluefin tuna population has dropped below 15% of its maximum historical level. ...

How successful are sporting comebacks?

AFTER a five-month absence to deal with his personal tribulations, Tiger Woods announced on March 16th that he would return to playing professional golf at this year's US Masters tournament in April. Sports stars have had mixed fortunes when returning to competition after a break. This week Michael Schumacher, who raced a Formula One car for the first time after a three-and-a-half year retirement, finished sixth in the Bahrain grand prix. George Foreman spent ten years as a pastor before getting back in the ring to regain the world heavyweight boxing crown at the age of 45. But Bjorn Borg, almost unbeatable in his day, made an ill-advised comeback to the tennis courts, losing every match with his old wooden racquets against competitors armed with more modern equipment.

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Twenty years after declaring independence, Lithuania is discovering the value of pragmatism

LITHUANIA thinks big. In the days of the late lamented Grand Duchy, it stretched from the Baltic to the Black Sea. That was in the 12th century. But its ability to grasp the big picture remains. This is why, on March 11th 1990, the newly elected Supreme Soviet of the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic voted unilaterally to restore the country’s pre-war independence, with immediate effect.

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Barack Obama has lost patience with Israel. But neither side dares risk a break-up

IT HAS been like a lovers’ tiff without the love—quickly tamped down but with none of the kissing and making up, and no soothing of the underlying rage. As Palestinian violence flared in Jerusalem, Barack Obama’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said through gritted teeth on March 16th that Israel and America enjoyed “a close, unshakable bond”. On the same day Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, claimed he had been “flagrantly misquoted” in a widely reported leak that he had called the quarrel the worst crisis between the allies for 35 years.

It is nonetheless plain that relations between Israel and the Obama administration are indeed in crisis. The spark was last week’s approval by Israel’s interior ministry of 1,600 new homes in Ramat Shlomo, a Jewish suburb in East (Palestinian) Jerusalem. This coincided not only with a visit by Vice-President Joe Biden but also with the eve of the “proximity talks” America had at last persuaded Mahmoud Abbas to enter with Binyamin (“Bibi”) Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. Mr Biden is known for his affection towards Israel but took the announcement as a gratuitous insult. So did Mrs Clinton, who on March 12th berated Mr Netanyahu for three-quarters of an hour on the phone. She reportedly told Mr Biden to “condemn” the announcement rather than merely “express concern”. ...

Buyers aplenty at the Maastricht art fair

RECESSIONS affect art fairs in different ways. The most obvious is when buyers stay away, especially if a fair has fallen from fashion or if entry tickets are too expensive. Another is when dealers abandon ship, curtailing the fairs they attend to two a year, say, instead of three. Or they suddenly offer deep discounts to ensure a sale. Slashing prices is a sure sign of lack of confidence. ...

Relations between America and Israel reach a low point

After a raucous public slanging match, America and Israel are attempting to heal the worst rift between the countries in years. The row erupted during Joe Biden’s visit to Jerusalem last week after the Israeli government approved plans to build 1,600 new homes in a Jewish suburb located in East Jerusalem. America’s vice-president, sent to shore up relations and reassure Israel over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, took this as a gross and gratuitous insult both personally and to his boss, Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, berated Mr Netanyahu on the phone and went on television to inform the world what she had done. The next day tensions rose higher after Israel’s ambassador to Washington was reported to have said that the crisis was the worst between the two countries in 35 years. He later claimed that he was misquoted. On March 16th Mrs Clinton, now trying to fight the flames, said that America had “an absolute commitment to Israel's security. We have a close, unshakeable bond.” ...

Our Big Mac index shows the Chinese yuan is still undervalued

Correction to this article

RECENT renewed American calls for China to revalue its currency have so far fallen on deaf ears. China has rejected accusations that America's huge trade deficit with it is caused largely by an artificially weak yuan, which has been pegged to the dollar since July 2008. Economists point out that an appreciation of the yen did little to help reduce America's trade deficit with Japan in the 1980s. But the yuan is unquestionably undervalued. Our Big Mac index, based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in which exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods across countries, suggests that the yuan is 49% below its fair-value benchmark with the dollar. ...

How an invisible country rocked the world

Some ivory sales are a good idea. This one isn’t

IN 1989 the signatories to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) agreed to ban the ivory trade, and banned it has remained. Except, that is, for when CITES chooses to allow it—as it has done now and then since 1997, when specific countries have some well-sourced ivory to get rid of. Most recently, in 2008, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe were allowed to make such sales to China and Japan. Now, as the triennial CITES meeting gets under way in Doha, both Tanzania and Zambia say they want to do something similar.

Those in favour of such sales (most notably, the countries which seek to make them) say they allow countries to benefit from having elephants, and help to finance elephant conservation and protection. Those against them (some conservation charities and some academics in the field) argue that any sale of ivory will lead to an increase in poaching by stimulating demand, and that little of the money raised actually goes to elephants. ...

What role should corporate citizens play in politics?

THE effort to elect Murray Hill to Congress is a political campaign unlike any other. It is rare for an election candidate to pledge to “put people second, or even third”, instead of the habitual first, but then the aspiring representative for Maryland’s 8th District is not a person but a company. According to its YouTube advert, Murray Hill, a public-relations firm, is taking advantage of a recent Supreme Court ruling that granted corporations full first-amendment political rights as people, to help create “the best democracy money can buy.”

This candidacy has its attractions. After all, it would become the first elected official truly available to constituents 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Nor is it alone: according to the Washington Post, a firm called Computer Umbrella is now running for Congress in Virginia. ...

Insurance losses from catastrophes

THE final bill in terms of the death toll and economic loss is still being calculated after massive earthquakes hit Haiti and Chile this year and will far outweigh the 15,000 people who died or went missing as a result of natural and man-made catastrophes in 2009. Last year, the total losses from catastrophes hit $62 billion, of which only $26 billion was covered by insurance, according to Swiss Re. (The insurance firm considers events “catastrophes” if insured claims, total economic losses or casualties exceed a certain threshold.) Insured natural catastrophes accounted for $22 billion and man-made disasters $4 billion. The most disastrous year for insurance companies was 2005. Insurance losses totalled some $117 billion after Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma and Rita struck America. Hurricane Katrina alone claimed 1,836 lives and resulted in insured losses of some $71 billion.

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Nicolas Sarkozy's party takes a battering in France's regional elections

HE MAY have steeled himself for a poor result in the first round of French regional elections, held on Sunday March 14th. But the outcome for France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, must nonetheless have felt crushing. Polls had suggested that his ruling UMP party would be neck-and-neck at this point with the opposition Socialists. Instead, the Socialists bagged fully 30%, with the UMP trailing at 26%. At the second round vote next Sunday, Mr Sarkozy can now hope at best simply to hold on to Alsace and Corsica, the only two regions out of 22 in France which the UMP governs. At worst, he might even lose both.

In a poll marked by the lowest turnout since France’s regions were created in 1986, Mr Sarkozy’s party did manage to come out top in several places, such as Champagne-Ardennes, Ile-de-France, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur (PACA) and Rhone-Alpes. But the two-round voting system allows any party with at least 10% of the poll to go forward to a run-off. This is likely to help the Socialists more than it will the UMP. Their friends, Europe Ecologie, the rising stars of the French left, secured a handy 13%. ...

Protestors against the Thai government take to the streets again

FOUR years of upheaval have set a high bar for street protests in Bangkok. But the demonstration that took place on Sunday March 14th was among the more impressive shows of strength in Thailand. Some 100,000 red-shirted protesters stood under a scorching sun to hear speaker after speaker denounce the current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, and the ruling elite that installed him. They called for Mr Abhisit to resign and hold fresh elections. On Monday Mr Abhisit rejected their calls from the army barracks where he was holed up, fearful for his security.

The main speech at the red-shirt rally was delivered through a video link by Thaksin Shinawatra, the twice-elected and now fugitive former prime minister. His refusal to go quietly since the army ousted him in 2006 has helped to push Thailand to the brink. The coup paved the way for the courts to order the seizure of $1.4 billion of Mr Thaksin’s fortune, which prompted his red-shirted supporters to call the present round of protests. Even before the court announced the seizure in February the red shirts had spent months preparing this massive operation in the rural north and north-east, where Mr Thaksin is still hailed as a hero. In his speech, he urged the army not to harm the people and denied that he had been expelled from Dubai, his adopted home. ...

Shining a harsh light on Lehman’s bankruptcy

IT SOUNDS distinctly unpromising. A nine-volume, 2,200-page report by a court-appointed examiner into the causes of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, published on Thursday March 11th, has a table of contents that lasts for 38 pages. Its most exciting finding relates to an off-balance-sheet accounting gimmick. But the work of Anton Valukas, the chairman of Jenner & Block, a law firm, is crisp, clear and explosive.

Mr Valukas and his team took more than a year to research their report. They collected more than 5m documents and reviewed an estimated 34m pages of information. Looking at Lehman’s IT systems was a particular challenge. The firm had a rat’s nest of more than 2,600 systems and applications at the time it went bust; Mr Valukas boiled that down to the 96 most relevant ones, some of which are now operated by Barclays (the buyer of Lehman’s American arm after the holding company failed). He also conducted more than 250 informal interviews, many of them with Lehman’s directors and most senior executives. ...